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SAIC Volkswagen 傅强: NEVs may account for more than 80% of the market in the second half of next year

Source: IT之家 Published: Business & Funding 中文
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傅强, executive deputy general manager for sales and marketing at SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. and general manager of Shanghai SAIC Volkswagen Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., told National Business Daily that the NEV purchase tax incentive will expire at the end of 2027, which may prompt some consumers who had planned to buy in the first half of 2028 to bring forward their demand; he expects a market trend of first being subdued and then rising next year, with NEVs potentially accounting for more than 80% of the market in the second half. CPCA data for October 2026 showed NEV retail penetration in China’s overall passenger vehicle market at 67.5%, up 10.5 percentage points year on year and 0.5 percentage points month on month. On the overall auto market, he said forecasts range from year-on-year growth of 3% to 3.5% in the optimistic case, roughly flat in the neutral case and a decline of 3% to 4% in the pessimistic case; sustained negative growth could affect consumer purchase decisions and pressure vehicle makers’ capacity utilization, gross margins and supply chain operations, while a somewhat better market would give dealers, OEMs and suppliers more room to breathe.

Translation(model translation, not the source's own text)

SAIC Volkswagen's 傅强: New energy vehicles may even exceed 80% market share in the second half of next year

IT Home, November 15 – 傅强, Executive Deputy General Manager of Sales and Marketing at SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. and General Manager of Shanghai SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Sales Co., Ltd., said in an interview with National Business Daily that the purchase tax incentive policy for new energy vehicles will expire at the end of 2027, which may prompt some consumers who originally planned to buy cars in the first half of 2028 to bring their demand forward.

I think the market may show a trend of first declining and then rising next year. In terms of the structure of new energy, its market share may even exceed 80% in the second half of next year.

IT Home noted that data from the October 2026 national passenger vehicle market analysis released by the China Passenger Car Association shows that in October, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's overall passenger vehicle market was 67.5%, up 10.5 percentage points year-on-year and up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month.

Regarding the overall performance of the automotive market, 傅强 said that there are different forecasts within the industry: under the optimistic scenario, it may grow 3% to 3.5% year-on-year; under the neutral scenario, it will be basically flat; and under the pessimistic scenario, it may decline 3% to 4%.

傅强 acknowledged that if the automotive market continues to experience negative growth, it may not only affect consumers' car-purchasing decisions, but also put pressure on vehicle manufacturers' capacity utilization, gross margins, and the operating conditions of the industrial chain.

If the market is a little better, dealers, automakers, and suppliers will all be able to cope a little more comfortably.

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The translation is machine-generated and individual terms may be off. Nothing is rewritten or cut; the original is authoritative.

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