Newshot Gartner Forecast: AI Will Net About 1.7 Million Jobs Globally by 2030
IT Home, November 15 news: The employment crisis that artificial intelligence may cause might not be as bad as people imagine.
Business and technology research firm Gartner forecasts that between 2025 and 2030, AI will create 10.6 million new jobs worldwide while causing 8.9 million jobs to disappear. Netting the two out, the global job market is expected to gain a net total of about 1.7 million jobs due to AI by 2030.
Gartner Distinguished Vice President Analyst and Head of Research 约翰 · 洛夫洛克 (John Lovelock), in an interview with Business Insider, said that what people are really feeling right now is that companies are in a wait-and-see phase, waiting for the impact of AI on how work is done and on the job market to gradually become clear.
洛夫洛克 explained: "In the early stage of AI adoption, companies tend to think: 'Let's hold off on hiring for now.' As AI adoption enters a higher stage, companies start cutting positions. And by the final stage of AI adoption, they usually start adding jobs, ultimately achieving net job growth."
Although the jobs expected to disappear due to the AI impact account for less than 2% of the total workforce, this new technology is likely to change how a considerable portion of people work.
Gartner forecasts that more than 20% of workers worldwide, or about 435.5 million people, will need to adapt to the changes brought by AI. This involves not only the specific content of the work, but also the way the work is done.
洛夫洛克 said: "Suppose you have 10 work tasks to complete today; tomorrow you may only need to complete 6 of them, and the way you complete those tasks will also be different."
Nicole Bachaud, an economist at the recruiting platform ZipRecruiter, believes that AI is bringing greater employment volatility to U.S. technology-related industries and changing companies' requirements for job responsibilities and candidates' skills.
Because AI can already handle some of the work previously done by employees, companies may be more inclined to hire candidates with experience using AI or with excellent soft skills. She said: "As these skill requirements change so rapidly, I think turnover will rise among workers in professional services, business services, financial activities, and the information industry, and the job market will therefore see greater volatility."
Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a career transition and executive training firm, shows that as of October this year, U.S. companies have announced more than 100,000 AI-related job cuts this year. Among the reasons companies cite for layoffs, AI has become the second most frequently mentioned factor, after market conditions and economic conditions.
However, not all employees agree with AI changing the content of their work.
克里斯 Tina Cristina Estupiñán, who previously worked in software development, did not show much interest when potential employers asked whether she was passionate about AI while she was looking for a new job after being laid off.
She previously said: "I had to make up some story about what aspects of AI excited me, because honestly, there really isn't anything about AI that genuinely excites me."
After working at Microsoft for more than 20 years, Shawn Mrzena decided to accept the voluntary retirement plan Microsoft offered to employees. One reason was that the rapid pace of AI technology development and the work requirements were not the direction of technological change he, as an employee, was willing to actively invest in.
He said: "I ultimately decided, 'Let's leave this to the next generation.' I don't want to put more of my energy and time into it. I don't wake up every morning feeling excited about it."
Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, said that the unemployment rate may remain at a low level next year, but within the next year or two, as companies adopt AI more aggressively, the job market may face some upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
He believes this impact is only a temporary headwind and does not mean the job market will face a massive unemployment disaster.
洛夫洛克 pointed out that different industries will be affected by AI to different degrees. For example, government departments may focus more on the efficiency gains brought by AI and use them to reduce staff size and lower operating costs, making job losses more likely.
In the services sector, after AI improves production efficiency, companies may earn higher operating profits, and hiring more employees may actually become more cost-effective, thereby driving job growth.
Although it remains uncertain how the job market will actually change in the coming years, people's worries about layoffs are intensifying.
IT Home notes that a survey by the Pew Research Center found that among the 37 countries and regions surveyed, Australia and South Korea each had 76% of respondents believing that AI will lead to fewer jobs in their countries over the next 20 years, the highest proportions among the countries surveyed. Nigeria and the Philippines had the lowest proportions of respondents holding the same view, at 26% each.
The Pew Research Center stated in its report: "In some countries, younger people (ages 18 to 34) are more worried than older people (ages 50 and older) that AI will cause job losses. This situation appears not only in high-income countries such as Canada, France, Singapore, and Sweden, but also in middle-income countries such as India, Indonesia, and Malaysia."
Based on current forecasts, the impact of AI on the job market may not be simply the disappearance of jobs, but rather slower hiring, the replacement of some positions, and the continuous emergence of new jobs happening at the same time. For workers, the real challenge they may need to face is how to adapt as quickly as possible to changes in the content of work and skill requirements.
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