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JPMorgan: U.S. humanoid robot output to reach 300,000–400,000 units by 2030

Source: IT之家 Published: AI 中文
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According to Reuters on November 12, a new JPMorgan forecast shows that as humanoid robots move from technology demonstrations to commercial applications, U.S. humanoid robot output will reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and further rise to about 1.5 million units by 2035. Labor shortages, falling usage costs and expanding production capacity are driving manufacturing, logistics and warehousing companies to adopt humanoid robots to replace repetitive manual labor. However, large-scale adoption still faces constraints in hardware, AI training data, compute and production capacity, and apart from Tesla, most U.S. manufacturers have annual output targets of only 10,000 to 30,000 units.

Translation(model translation, not the source's own text)

JPMorgan: U.S. humanoid robot output to reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030

IT之家, November 12 — according to a report by Reuters today (the 12th), the latest forecast from JPMorgan shows that as humanoid robots move from technology demonstrations to commercial applications, U.S. humanoid robot output will reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030, and further rise to about 1.5 million units by 2035.

Labor shortages, falling usage costs and expanding production capacity are driving manufacturing, logistics and warehousing companies to adopt humanoid robots to replace repetitive manual labor.

However, large-scale adoption of humanoid robots still faces constraints in hardware, AI training data, computing power and production capacity. Apart from Tesla, most U.S. manufacturers have annual output targets of only 10,000 to 30,000 units.

JPMorgan estimates that the cost of using humanoid robots has gradually approached the cost of human labor. If robots are scheduled for multiple shifts, each customer can save about $100,000 per year (IT之家 note: about 669,000 yuan at current exchange rates). In the short term, however, the industry's development remains constrained by supply capacity. Dexterous hands, actuators, the robot "brain" and production capacity are the main bottlenecks.

Compared with complete-robot manufacturers, JPMorgan believes component suppliers offer better investment opportunities in the short term, and expects the market for core components such as actuators, motors and vision systems to approach $30 billion by 2035 (about 20.0574 billion yuan at current exchange rates).

On the complete-robot side, JPMorgan highlights Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics' Digit, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's Figure series robots and Apptronik's Apollo, considering the companies behind these products to be the main players in the U.S. humanoid robot industry.

On the component supplier side, JPMorgan is bullish on Timken, ROBOTIS, Leaderdrive, Orbbec and Cognex.

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